Raw UTG preflop data with notes

UTG Expected Values: Pocket Pairs Over 100,000 trials
Starting Hand	Open Call	Open Raise
AA	13.48	11.87
KK	7.60	7.70
QQ	4.93	5.14
JJ	2.96	3.07
TT	1.41	1.88
99	0.47	0.51
88	-0.19	0.00
77	-0.80	-0.65
66	-1.21	-1.04
55	-1.40	-1.46
44	-1.62	-1.66
33	-1.75	-1.86
22	-2.00	-2.06

- Each hand was tested 100,000 times at a 9 handed 3/6 table with a general profile, while open calling one small bet and 100,000 times while open raising to 2 bets. Obviously, being 1st to act, there's no need to test hands against limpers or raisers. The general table profile has no more than two aggressive players, no more than 2-3 loose players and generally sees 3.6 players per flop. This is not a juicy game, but it's consistent with the play in most cardrooms, in line with the research goal to determine the optimal strategy for such a game.

- If raised by someone acting after us, the simulator automatically calls for one extra bet, but only calls for 2 or more extra bets with tens or better, reraising with Queens or better if possible. Tens or better are very strong hands that consistently profit even against top hands. Any pocket pair weaker than this is thrown away when facing two more bets (and previous research confirmed that nines and below are big losers when played for three or more bets preflop. I can simulate and outline this scenario at a later date to illustrate this).

- Most pocket pairs need to flop a set or a disguised open ended straight draw to continue playing on the flop... or they must be folded. Stronger pairs can often win on their own provided that pair's rank is either higher than the high card on the flop, or sometimes when right below it. Middle and low pairs almost always need to flop a set to have value, and even then they run the costly danger of another player flopping a better set or making a flush or straight to beat them.

- The surprising stat from above: pocket aces turns a bigger profit when open limped than when open raised, over $1.50 more per hand. All other hands turned a better profit when raised. AA's result was such a baffling outlier that I ran 100,000 more trials for each scenario with AA to make sure, but the 2nd results were no greater than 4 to 5 cents off the original results.

The most likely cause is that when someone raises after we limp, which happens rather often, AA reraises or calls a full number of bets, and is so far ahead of all other hands that it wins most of the resulting larger pots. All other pairs run the risk of being dominated or outdrawn in such a scenario.

- Due to the parameters of Wilson Software's Turbo Texas Hold'Em simulator, I cannot set the simulator to raise nines through Kings, then limp Aces, if I were to test an overall strategy. The simulator only allows you to set a minimum bar for raising pocket pairs, with no more specific definition.

However, since you only see pocket Aces roughly once every 221 hands, the difference in profitability overall would add up to about a penny per hand over a lengthy simulation. And of course, AA is still immensely profitable when raised instead. We'll note reality, but in subsequent simulations we'll let it slide and raise Aces preflop UTG.

- Clearly, as noted a while back, the dividing line for profitable pocket pairs under the gun is nines or better. Eights break even when raised, though the actual return was a very small profit, so small that the average profit per hand was 0.00. Not playing them under the gun at all may be the better play in order to reduce variance.

- Conclusion: Under the gun before the flop, raise with pocket pairs nine or better, except for Aces, which can be limped.