Friday, February 13, 2009

Early position trial results with notes

Early Position Expected Values
for Pocket Pairs (100,000 trials)
Starting
Hand
Open
Call
Open
Raise
Limp
Behind
Raise
Limpers
Cold
Call
3-bet vs
Raise
AA12.8811.2914.5714.8917.9718.91
KK7.077.568.5610.569.7210.36
QQ4.885.165.937.264.894.83
JJ3.083.373.404.861.921.83
TT1.672.081.742.690.00-0.39
990.260.860.981.49-1.08-2.07
88-0.160.120.360.83-1.79-3.14
77-0.77-0.33-0.110.07-2.19-3.64
66-1.14-0.75-0.40-0.41-2.15-3.82
55-1.43-1.25-0.74-0.48-2.37-3.98
44-1.66-1.33-0.81-0.89-2.60-4.32
33-1.86-1.57-1.03-1.08-2.54-4.34
22-2.03-2.02-1.18-1.20-2.70-4.37


- Once again, open limping AA carries greater value than open raising, but once we see action in front, AA once again profits most from raising. It appears the key to AA's success is to ensure you have some action, which open limping does.

- Open raising remains the supreme play for all other playable pairs when facing one bet.

- Open raising is profitable until we get down to the marginally profitable 88. The smaller the profit, the smaller the margin for error. Playing 88 the slightest bit unprofitably can turn it into an unprofitable hand.

- Likewise, against limpers, pairs are profitable when raised down to 77, where the profit margin is even smaller. A novice could do well to not play these hands at all. We can explore the best way to play hands like these once we explore postflop strategies.

- Acting when facing a raise presents some interesting data. AA and KK, of course, are most profitable when reraised (3-betting). But by a thin margin, QQ and JJ are most profitable when calling two bets. The margin is so thin, however, that you could just reraise those hands as well and not see a significant dropoff. In fact, since win percentages increase when you raise over calling and reduce your variance with these hands as a result, it can be argued that reraising may be worth the slight loss of profitability since you'll win more often by pricing out weaker hands that may outdraw you.

Early position pocket pair recommendations:

When 1st to act, limp in with AA and raise with KK-88.

Against limpers, raise with AA-77.

Against a raise, reraise with AA and KK, but call with QQ and JJ.

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