Middle position profitability for middle pairs in middle position

For each hand set, I will list the Maverick preflop strategy when 1st to enter the pot, when others have limped in front, and when someone has raised in front. When a player behind reraises after the simulator has entered a pot, the simulator is instructed to call an extra bet for nearly all hands listed.

If it's two or more bets back to the simulator, it won't continue without a supremely strong hand like AA, KK, QQ or AK, maybe JJ. If the simulator reraised itself, it did so with a very strong hand like AA, KK, AQ or QQ. It's likely the action will not come back to him, or that betting will be capped preflop if it does, in which case the simulator would probably stay in. If it's two more bets back to the simulator, it's likely someone has one of the aforementioned monsters, and obviously there's little value to continuing with a hand like AJ or KQ, which is probably way behind before the flop.

The following table illustrates 100,000 hand trials in middle position for playable pairs 99 to 55, which fall in the Maverick profile's playable range. Pairs ten and up aren't included, since those hands are definite winners in any position for two bets, even more in most cases. For example, there's no need to run trials for pocket Aces, when we know pocket Aces is a big winner whether for one, two or four bets.

Hand	Action When 1st in	Action With Limpers	Action When Raised	Net $ Per Hand (3/6)
99	Raise	Raise	Call	1.25
88	Raise	Raise	Call	0.40
77	Raise	Call	Call	-0.56
66	Raise	Call	Fold	-0.63
55	Raise	Fold	Fold	-1.42

Notice how the profitability coincides with the aggressiveness exercised when other players limp in front. For all playable pairs (as with all hands under Maverick), you would raise if 1st in, but your strategy varies when others enter the pot before you.

My key observation is that hands that limp behind other limpers show far less profitability, but they're also lower in rank, increasing the risk of overcards and getting outdrawn on the flop (if they're not already facing overpairs preflop). Granted, this is a risk regardless, and the idea overall is probably to play cheap and hope to flop a set, or fold. 88 and higher play strong enough that they could win on their own in some cases, plus of course Broadway pairs (AA-TT) usually can win on their own.

Nonetheless, limping allows other marginal hands to limp behind, increasing this likelihood that a hand will outdraw on the flop. So I tested 77 and 66 over 100K hands each with a strategy to raise against limpers instead of limping along, to deter marginal hands behind and thin the field. I omitted 55 because it's -1.42 loss rate indicates that even an improved strategy wouldn't make it profitable from MP.

Hand	Limp Net $	Raise Net $
77	-0.56	-0.38
66	-0.63	-0.30

Raising limpers reduced the loss of each hand, but did not make the hand profitable. And as we saw in previous trials, open limping these hands instead of open raising them almost always reduces the expected value of a hand, and when it improves the value, the improvement is typically insigificant. The potential improvement of limping either of these hands likely wouldn't offset the $0.30+ losses per hand that these hands see.