Sunday, December 28, 2008

Late position hands vs limpers

With limpers behind us, our range tightens up, but now our options expand, because players limping in front generally means more money in the pot improve our pot odds for drawing. Even if raised behind, many of those players will call and we will call as well, improving the payout when our biggest draws come in.

However, do we limp behind or do we raise? Unlike when 1st in, raises probably will not thin the field, as those who limped behind us will probably call. A raise with limpers in should be for value to build a pot for big hands and draws.

The Maverick profile plays this way with limpers behind:

Raise: AA-77, AKs-A9s, AKo-A10o, KQs-KJs, KQo, QJs
Limp behind: 66-44, A8s-A2s, K10s-K2s, KJo, Q10s, QJo, J10s-J8s, 10-9s to 10-8s, 98s

With the button locked in one seat to the test profile's left, I conducted 100,000 hand trials for each hand listed using the Maverick's strategy for each respective hand. Again, top hands like AA and AKs were omitted since we already know these hands are hugely profitable in each situation and running a test to verif this would be as big a waste of time as having a calculator output the results of the equation 3+3 one hundred times. We know 3+3=6, and we know pocket Aces and AKs are very profitable against limpers.

PairsNet $
Per-Hand
(3/6)
PairsNet $
Per-Hand
(3/6)
992.61660.00
881.4555-0.35
770.7344-0.50


AcesNet $
Per-Hand
(3/6)
AcesNet $
Per-Hand
(3/6)
AQs4.03A4s-0.09
AJs3.21A3s-0.24
A10s2.61A2s-0.33
A9s1.61AQo2.61
A8s0.44AJo1.64
A7s0.20A10o1.19
A6s0.05A9o0.10
A5s0.06A8o-0.51


KingsNet $
Per-Hand
(3/6)
KingsNet $
Per-Hand
(3/6)
KQs2.39K8s-0.20
KJs2.02KQo1.03
K10s0.96KJo0.22
K9s0.24


OthersNet $
Per-Hand
(3/6)
OthersNet $
Per-Hand
(3/6)
QJs1.53J9s-0.19
Q10s0.54J8s-0.51
Q9s-0.1610-9s-0.23
Q8s-0.4010-8s-0.56
QJo-0.1598s-0.55
J10s0.51


Pairs: Again, we see a profit until we pass 77, where 66 breaks even and everything below posts a loss.

Aces: Suited Aces see a profit until it reduces to a trickle for A6s, and becomes a loss for A4s and below. A9o and A8o were added in manually, as A10o, the bottom end of Maverick's range, showed a large profit. Offsuit Ace-broadway posts big wins, but then we see a precipitous drop for A9o, though we still see a slight profit. At A8o, however, we see a loss.

Kings: Suited King-broadway shows a big profit, then K9s shows a slight profit when limped before K8s shows a loss. KQo shows a sizable profit, then KJo shows a small but discernible profit. I did not add and test K10o, anticipating it would post a loss given the downward trend between KQ and KJ.

Others: Queen-broadway posted a profit, but then we see a huge drop to Q9s, which posts a loss. And this is where the offsuit broadway profitability ceases, as QJo shows a slight loss. J10s showed a good profit, but J9s showed a loss. Ten-9 suited posted a loss, and 98s posted a loss.

***

That all said, some of these hands were limped behind rather than raised. I manually adjusted the Maverick profile to raise with the limping hands, and ran subsequent 100K trials from the same position to compare their profitability.

(I also added some hands that Maverick did not originally play: these hands are left blank in the 'Net Limp Behind' column and won't have data for the 'Net Raise Advantage' column.)

HandNet
Limp
Behind
Net
Raise
Limpers
Raise Net
Advantage
A8s0.441.140.70
A7s0.200.670.47
A6s0.050.410.36
A5s0.060.560.50
A4s-0.090.310.40
A3s-0.240.220.46
A2s-0.330.080.41
K10s0.961.470.51
K9s0.240.550.31
KJo0.220.730.51
K10o-0.02
Q10s0.541.130.59
Q9s-0.160.130.29
QJo-0.150.360.51
Q10o-0.31
J10s0.510.860.35
J9s-0.190.060.25


In literally every case, raising the limpers instead of limping behind added value to each hand played. Both previously unplayed hands still posted a loss, but every hand that was previously unprofitable when limped became at least slightly profitable when raised instead.

Therefore, it may be advised to take a raise or fold approach to entering a pot in late position. With this data, we can adopt a revised preflop strategy against limpers:

Raise AA-77, Axs, AKo-A9o, KQs-K9s, KQo-KJo, QJs-Q9s, QJo, J10s-J9s

This makes up a little over 17% of possible hands. Given their minimal profitability, you could omit J9s, A9o and A2s if you wished, which leaves a little less than 16% of possible hands. It may be best to compromise with these hands: entering the pot with J9s and A2s only with several limpers in (at least 3, if not 4 or more) behind due to their drawing strength, or entering with A9o only with one limper or two due to its need for isolation.

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