Thursday, December 18, 2008

A look at the Maverick preflop strategy

The Maverick strategy follows a varied, somewhat convoluted preflop strategy in middle position.

When first in: Raise AA-55, all suited Aces, AKo-A10o, KQs-K7s, KQo, KJo, QJs-Q8s, QJo, J10s-J8s, 10-9s, 10-8s and 98s.

Limpers in front: Raise AA-88, AKs-A10s, AKo-A10o and KQs. Call 77-66, A9s-A4s, KJs-K10s, KQo, QJs-Q10s and J10s.

Raised in front: Reraise AA-TT, AKs, AQs and AKo. Cold call JJ, TT, and AQs.

Fold any hand not listed for that particular situation.

You'll notice that for some hands, you'll raise if 1st in, but fold them to a raise, or raise them when facing one bet, but fold them when facing a raise. You can open raise with K9s, but if anyone enters the pot in front, you'll fold, even for one bet. Or you'll enter a pot for one bet with A5s, even raise if 1st in, but you'll fold against a raise.

David Sklansky refers to this paradox as the Gap Concept, where a player needs a stronger hand to call a raise than he needs to make the raise in the first place. In layman's terms, when no one has raised in front, it's likely that your hand is stronger than the hands of those before you, whether they folded or called. Plus, when you raise and make it two bets to call for everyone after you, they typically won't enter unless they have strong hands themselves. Your raise indicates a strong hand, even if you raise with a marginal hand like Q8s. Open raising increases the strength of your hand, as players behind you with marginal hands will fold them, reducing your opposition.

However, if someone were to raise from early position, it's likely you're facing a big pocket pair or a big broadway hand like AQ. Q8s doesn't match up well against AQ or pocket Jacks, so you should fold to a raise. But if everyone in front has limped, your Q8s is likely competitive. If you're the first player to bet preflop, your Q8s not only may be the strongest hand, but it's less likely that anyone else at the table has a hand stronger than that, because the first few players have folded.

You'll also notice that you'll call a raise with suited versions of hands you would not play against a raise if unsuited, such as AJ. The suitedness gives you an opportunity for Ace, King or Queen high flushes if two of your suit flops, even a dim chance thereat if one of your suit flops. This adds to the high pair potential and vague broadway straight potential of hands like AJ and KQ. With offsuit hands, you're basically banking on spiking top pair or better, maybe a straight.

With the $3 max rake and $1-2 jackpot drop of a 3/6 game, hand values get undercut, and the key is to find the hands that retain positive value after these cuts. The optimal end strategy will be tighter than the typical winning low limit strategy, but this will minimize leaks and ensure maximum profitability.

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